Lesson 3
Hit 12–16 vs strong dealer
When the dealer is scary, you must try
The opposite of the previous lesson. When the dealer shows 7, 8, 9, 10, or Ace, you must hit your 12–16.
Why? A strong dealer upcard reaches 17+ around 75–80% of the time. If you stand on 16 against a dealer 10, you win only when they bust (~21%). That means you lose 79% of the time.
Hitting busts you 62%, which sounds terrible — but compare to losing 79% by standing. Hitting is the lesser loss. You're not trying to win; you're trying to lose less.
Advanced: 16 vs 10 is so bad that if is available, you should and lose only half your bet.
Key points
- ✓Hit 12–16 vs dealer 7, 8, 9, 10, Ace
- ✓You're picking between two losing plays
- ✓Standing on 16 vs 10 loses 79% — hitting is better
- ✓Surrender 16 vs 10 if available