Lesson 1
Why counting cards works
The math of a favorable shoe
Counting cards isn't magic. It's tracking a simple ratio: are there more high cards (10s, Aces) or low cards (2–6) remaining in the shoe?
Why it matters: The dealer has to hit any hand under 17. More high cards remaining = more dealer busts. Also, more blackjacks for you (which pay 3:2 instead of 1:1).
Each removed low card (2–6) is mildly good for you. Each removed high card (10, A) is mildly bad. Counting systems assign +/- values to track this.
Hi-Lo is the most popular system:
- 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 = +1
- 7, 8, 9 = 0
- 10, J, Q, K, A = −1
Keep a running total as cards come out. Positive = shoe is rich in high cards = you have an edge. Raise your bet.
Key points
- ✓Track the ratio of high vs low cards
- ✓Hi-Lo: 2–6 = +1, 7–9 = 0, 10–A = −1
- ✓Positive count = your edge grows
- ✓Each +1 true count ≈ +0.5% edge