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Lesson 3

Running count vs true count

The key conversion nobody teaches

The tells you the raw plus/minus. But a +5 with 6 decks left is very different from +5 with 1 deck left. = / decks remaining - Running +5 with 5 decks left → +1 (small edge) - Running +5 with 1 deck left → +5 (huge edge) The is what you actually bet on. Rough bet-spread guideline: - ≤ 0 — bet the table minimum - +1 — bet 1 unit - +2 — bet 2 units - +3 — bet 4 units - +4 — bet 8 units - +5 or more — bet 12 units The interactive section below renders the same data as a proper table; this list is the inline version because lesson prose doesn't run a markdown table parser. Estimate decks remaining by eyeballing the discard tray. A deck is about ½ inch thick.

Key points

  • ✓True count = running count ÷ decks remaining
  • ✓Always convert before placing your bet
  • ✓Bet spread: 1× at TC ≤ 1, scale up exponentially
  • ✓Eyeball the discard tray (½ inch ≈ 1 deck)
  • ✓Wong in at TC +1, Wong out near TC 0 to skip negative shoes