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Lesson 3

Pot odds, outs, and the rule of 4-and-2

The math that drives every call

Every time you face a bet, you're getting offered a price. The question is always: do I have enough to call profitably? = the price you're getting. If the pot is 10bb and you face a 3bb bet, you call 3 to win 13. Your break-even is 3 / (10 + 3) = ~23%. = cards that complete your hand. A flush draw has 9 (13 suited cards minus 4 you can see). An straight has 8. A , 4. The -and-2: - Flop → river: multiply by 4 to estimate your - Turn → river: multiply by 2 A flush draw on the flop: 9 × 4 = 36% . On the turn: 9 × 2 = 18%. Compare to required . If ≥ , the call is profitable in isolation. = the extra money you expect to win if you hit. When a draw is marginal, turn losing calls into winning ones — but only if the opponent actually pays off when you hit.

Key points

  • ✓Pot odds = call / (pot + call)
  • ✓Rule of 4 on flop, 2 on turn per out
  • ✓Subtract 1 per extra out above 8 for big draws (overcount correction)
  • ✓Flush draw: 9 outs = 36% by river
  • ✓Gutshot: 4 outs = 16% by river (~19% pot odds to call profitably)
  • ✓Implied odds can justify calls that raw pot odds don't